Gold price breaks records above $3,100 as parabolic rally defies gravity, silver price eyes breakout

By Jeremy Szafron, Kitco News

(Kitco News) - Gold prices surged past $3,100 per ounce Monday, notching new record highs and closing out Q1 as the best-performing quarter for the yellow metal in nearly four decades. Spot gold reached an intraday peak of $3,128.06, while June Comex futures touched $3,162. The metal is now up roughly 19% year-to-date, outperforming most asset classes and continuing its 2024 momentum, where it gained over 27%.

“This is truly historic price action,” said Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com. “Ten percent of that 19% gain came in just the past month. If you look at the monthly chart, it’s basically a straight line up.”

Gold is benefiting from a confluence of macro drivers: heightened geopolitical tension, sticky inflation, and surging investor interest through exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Total assets under management in global gold ETFs now stand at $268 billion, with a one-day inflow of 23 tonnes recorded in March—the highest since 2022.

Tariff risks and safe-haven flows intensify

The recent rally has been fueled in part by anticipation of new U.S. tariffs. President Donald Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, targeting countries including Canada, China, and the EU. Automotive tariffs are reportedly set to follow on April 3, potentially increasing vehicle prices by thousands of dollars.

“Tariffs are essentially taxes on goods, and that’s inflationary,” Wagner explained. “If tariffs broaden, costs go up, and that reinforces the need for inflation hedges like gold.”

Wagner added that uncertainty – not just about trade, but global conflict and political volatility – is playing a central role.

“As long as that uncertainty spring keeps winding tighter, gold will keep exploding to the upside,” he said. “We are in truly uncharted territory.”

Technically, Wagner sees no immediate exhaustion in the trend. “Yes, gold is overbought on the stochastic oscillator,” he said, “but the momentum is so strong that it defies traditional indicators. This is a textbook parabolic move.”

His near-term price range target: $3,200. Long-term, he projects $3,400 by Q3. “I’m more conservative than some. Goldman Sachs is calling for $4,500 under extreme scenarios. Could that happen? Yes – but my charts are showing $3,400 for now.”

Silver plays catch-up but faces resistance

Silver is also climbing, though not with the same breakout conviction. Spot silver is up nearly 20% year-to-date and briefly tested $35 last week, a level not seen since 2011. However, it remains well below its all-time highs.

“Silver is facing clear resistance around $35,” said Wagner. “If it breaks out, $41 to $42 is the next logical level – but it’s still lagging gold.”

Despite outperforming gold in percentage terms this quarter, silver ETF inflows have lagged. Since January, silver ETFs have added just 2.2 million ounces, a 0.32% increase, compared to gold ETFs’ 5.9% rise. Analysts cite silver’s dual role as a monetary and industrial metal for the divergence.

“It’s tied to the broader economy,” Wagner noted. “If tech and manufacturing slow, silver demand slows too. That’s part of what’s holding it back.”

Still, Wagner believes silver could eventually follow gold higher if a supply squeeze materializes. “There’s plenty of room to run—but it hasn’t broken out yet,” he said.