By James Hyerczyk, FXEmpire
Gold Prices Hold Steady as Focus Turns to US Payrolls Data
Gold prices were nearly unchanged on Wednesday, trading within a narrow range as investors awaited critical U.S. economic data. Prices remained rangebound between resistance at $2663.51 to $2693.40 and support at $2629.13 to $2607.35, reflecting market indecision. Additionally, gold traded below the pivotal 50-day moving average of $2668.65, underscoring the lack of clear direction.
At 12:49 GMT, XAU/USD is trading $2650.72, up $0.495 or +0.02%.
Fed Policy and Payroll Data in Focus
Investors are cautious ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to show an increase of 200,000 jobs in November following a modest 12,000-job gain in October. Markets are also keeping a close eye on initial jobless claims data due Thursday for additional insight into the labor market’s strength.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks earlier in the week highlighted the resilience of the U.S. economy, tempering expectations for aggressive rate cuts. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 74% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting. Lower interest rates historically support gold prices, as bullion becomes more attractive relative to yield-bearing assets.
Treasury Yields Edge Higher
U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly on Thursday as markets digested a weaker-than-expected ADP payroll report and braced for the NFP data. The 10-year Treasury yield rose over 2 basis points to 4.205%, while the 2-year yield climbed 3 basis points to 4.152%. Higher yields typically weigh on gold prices by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Market Analysts See Rangebound Movement
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, noted that gold remains in a “relatively tight range,” signaling a lack of strong directional drivers. Meanwhile, Zain Vawda of MarketPulse by OANDA projected a possible short-term rise toward $2700 per ounce, citing seasonal U.S. dollar weakness. However, Vawda warned of potential for deeper corrections over the medium term.
Gold Prices Forecast
Near-term, gold prices could find support if Friday’s NFP report falls short of expectations, potentially lifting prices toward the $2700 level. However, strong payrolls data or rising Treasury yields may exert downward pressure. With the Fed signaling caution on rate cuts, gold is likely to remain rangebound in the short term. A break above the 50-day moving average of $2668.65 would be needed to confirm a bullish breakout.
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